Energy markets are currently navigating their most volatile period in recent history. Not even the 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel in June 2025 caused fluctuations as dramatic as those seen in the past few days. While Iran remains a factor, the geopolitical fate of Greenland is creating equal anxiety as President Trump vows to acquire the island “the easy way or the hard way.”
The Greenland Conflict
Initially dismissed as a satirical suggestion in 2019, President Trump’s ambition to take possession of Greenland has become a serious pursuit in his second term. European diplomats view his rhetoric as a genuine military threat, especially following recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela.
In a rare display of solidarity, European powers—including the UK, France, Germany, Spain, Poland, and Italy—have joined Denmark in a statement declaring, “Greenland belongs to its people.” While Denmark has vowed to use force against any invader, the specific troop contributions from European allies remain unclear. This dispute has already fractured the NATO alliance, pitting the U.S. against Denmark.
The Iranian Factor
Oil prices spiked this past Wednesday amid fears of U.S. airstrikes against Iran following the killing of protesters. Tensions rose further when Iran briefly closed its airspace without explanation. Prices retreated once it became clear an attack was not imminent, though the risk remains on the table.
Market Outlook: Why $100 Oil is Unlikely
- U.S. Production: The United States is producing over 13.5 million barrels a day, providing a significant market buffer.
- Venezuelan Supply: Following the capture of President Maduro, the U.S. and Venezuela have agreed to a revenue-sharing deal that is bringing oil back to the global market.
- Inventory Growth: U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels last week, according to the EIA.
While market analysts believe $100 a barrel is unlikely, President Trump has gone further, predicting that prices will eventually drop down to approximately $54 a barrel.
