The United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) decision to exit OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance poses a significant upside risk to global oil supply over the medium term, Goldman Sachs, a leading global investment banking firm, reported. According to Reuters, the bank noted that while immediate impacts are limited by current geopolitical constraints, the move weakens the producer group’s control over global inventories and grants Abu Dhabi greater autonomy over future output levels.
The bank’s base case currently anticipates that UAE crude production will recover to 3.8 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) by October 2026, up from 3.6 mmbbl/d recorded before the conflict. However, the bank estimated the UAE’s potential crude production capacity at just over 4.5 mmbbl/d by February 2026. Furthermore, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), the nation’s primary producer, maintains a strategic target to bolster production capacity to 5 million barrels (mmbbl) by 2027.
The exit is expected to impact global market rebalancing efforts as inventories will require replenishment once critical Gulf export routes reopen. Goldman Sachs currently assumes cumulative Gulf crude production losses will reach 1.83 billion barrels (bbbl) by December 2026.
Moreover, oil prices surged over 6% on April 29 as deadlocked negotiations between the US and Iran intensified investor concerns regarding prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern energy flows. Goldman Sachs observed that while the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz currently restricts UAE output, the exit creates an upside risk to previous production forecasts.
The UAE announced on April 28 its intention to depart from the organization effective May 1, 2026. This strategic shift follows years of internal deliberations regarding the UAE’s production quotas and coincides with heightened regional volatility. Specifically, the exit occurs as the UAE manages the impact of attacks from Iran, an OPEC member currently exempt from the group’s production restrictions.
UAE joined OPEC in 1967. At the time of its entry, the federation was represented by the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, as the unified UAE was not formally established until 1971. Historically, the UAE has been one of the organization’s most influential members and a primary driver of the alliance’s production policy.
