Global energy analysts anticipate a gradual recovery in Venezuelan crude oil production following the U.S. strike and capture of President Nicolas Maduro, a development poised to reshape global supply dynamics, according to Reuters.
US President Donald Trump announced that Washington would oversee the transition of the oil-rich nation while maintaining a strategic embargo. While the immediate impact on markets remains muted, the removal of the previous administration is seen as a primary step toward consolidating a new regulatory framework to attract the capital-intensive investment required for sector rehabilitation.
Venezuela, once a major oil producer pumping up to 3.5 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) in the 1970s, saw output slide to about 1.1 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) last year. JPMorgan said that under a political transition, production could rise to 1.3–1.4 mmbbl/d within two years and potentially reach 2.5 mmbbl/d over the next decade.
Goldman Sachs cautioned that any recovery would be slow and capital-intensive. It estimated a potential $4-per-barrel downside to 2030 oil prices if Venezuelan output climbs to 2 mmbbl/d, while noting that near-term production will depend on how US sanctions evolve.
Goldman left its 2026 oil price forecasts unchanged, projecting Brent at $56 a barrel and WTI at $52, with Venezuelan production expected to remain flat at around 900,000 barrels per day (b/d) next year.
