Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei dismissed the possibility of further discussions with the Trump administration. He noted that the Islamic Republic’s founding father, Ayatollah Khomeini, had banned the revival of ties with the United States. Consequently, progress remains in limbo. As the U.S. bolsters its military presence in the region, defense analysts believe both sides are merely buying time to achieve their respective goals.
Despite the temporary relief, a risk premium remains baked into oil and gas prices due to Middle East tensions, causing recent price spikes. This geopolitical friction has countered the downward pressure typically caused by an anticipated supply glut and the arrival of warmer weather in the Northern Hemisphere, which usually reduces demand.
Recent military incidents involving the Iranian Navy in the Strait of Hormuz have further unsettled markets. While the narrow waterway is approximately 20 km wide at its broadest point, geographical factors restrict ship movement to a stretch only 2 km wide. A direct military confrontation in this bottleneck could escalate rapidly, a prospect that has deeply alarmed neighboring Arab nations.
