bp reported that upstream production in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026 is expected to remain broadly stable compared with the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, at 2.344 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboe/d). Within this, gas and low-carbon energy output are projected to edge slightly higher, while oil production may decline marginally due to pricing impacts on entitlement volumes.
In the gas and low-carbon segment, prices are expected to stay steady, with trading results similar to last quarter. Oil production and operations should add $0.1–0.2 billion in earnings, helped by pricing lags in regions such as the Gulf of America and the UAE. Operating costs are likely to rise by $0.1 billion, while depreciation and amortization charges are expected to remain around $2.0 billion.
In the customers and products segment, seasonally lower volumes and weaker retail margins are expected to be offset by stronger midstream performance. Refining margins are set to improve, contributing an additional $0.1–0.2 billion, alongside reduced turnaround activity. Oil trading results are expected to be exceptional compared with the weak performance in Q4 2025.
bp also reported that its underlying effective tax rate for Q1 2026 is expected to be around 35%, reflecting stronger results in products. Capital expenditure is projected to remain broadly flat at $3.5 billion, while net debt is anticipated to rise to $25–27 billion, compared with $22.2 billion at the end of Q4 2025. The increase is driven primarily by a significant working capital build in the range of $4–7 billion, largely due to the price environment.
bp is one of the world’s largest integrated energy companies, headquartered in London, with operations spanning oil, natural gas, refining, and low-carbon energy.
