The rate of change in prices of the household electricity, natural gas, and other fuels index registered a marginal 0.1% month-on-month increase in June 2026 compared to 2.0% in May, according to the monthly bulletin of the consumer price index (CPI) for June 2026 by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS).
This marginal monthly increase stands in stark contrast to the 21.3% MoM surge recorded in April 2026 on the back of the wide-ranging domestic energy price adjustments in March, when 80-octane gasoline rose by 15% and diesel prices climbed to EGP 20.50 per liter. Following the April peak, monthly utility inflation steadily moderated to 1.0% in May before flattening in June.
The June stabilization came even as Egypt’s overall monthly consumer price index declined by 0.4%, indicating that household energy prices have entered a temporary period of stability before the government resumes its broader subsidy reform agenda.
Commenting on the latest figures, Esraa Ahmed, macroeconomics analyst at Thndr Securities, noted that the sharp (Fuel and Electricity) price adjustments witnessed earlier this year are subsiding, adding that the latest reading reflects “relative calmness in the decisions related to electricity, gas.”
Nevertheless, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly announced in early July a 20% increase in electricity tariffs for restaurants, cafés, and commercial establishments operating beyond official closing hours. The measure is designed to promote more efficient electricity use while supporting fiscal consolidation, rather than imposing broad-based increases on residential consumers.
Ahmed ruled out that these increases would significantly affect the household inflation index, explaining that the index only measures household consumption, and not commercial use. She added that the surcharge applied to businesses “will not be reflected in these numbers.”
Madbouly also confirmed that the Automatic Pricing Committee for Petroleum Products will resume its scheduled quarterly meetings to assess market developments and align domestic fuel prices more closely with international benchmarks.
Egypt’s electricity pricing remains tied to the country’s energy supply needs. The power grid is mainly powered by natural gas and Mazut. Overall household and industrial gas use averages 6.1 billion cubic feet (bcf) daily, while local production is only around 4.0 billion, forcing the government to import the rest. Keeping these import costs under control while gradually cutting subsidies is a central part of Egypt’s wider economic reform program.
Looking ahead, Ahmed said the rate of increase in energy prices could remain broadly stable if fuel prices are left unchanged. “If we can preserve the present stability and avoid another fuel price increase, we can expect an average between 14% and 15% for the second half of the year,” she noted.
However, she cautioned that another round of fuel price increases would alter that trajectory. “If fuel prices move again at a pace similar to the last increase, instead of inflation averaging between 14% and 15% in the second half of the year, it may average between 15% and 16%,” Ahmed said.
Egypt’s annual urban inflation eased for the third straight month, slipping to 14.3% in June 2026 from 14.6% in May. This marked the lowest reading since February, as the impact of earlier fuel price hikes continued to fade.
